HKUST ESG reading group

HKUST ESG reading group

Sea-Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields

Goldsmith-Pinkham, et al. | 24 Feb 2023 » Climate Change, Emissions, Carbon, Green Bond, Review of Financial Studies

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#Abstract

Municipal bond markets began pricing sea-level rise (SLR) exposure risk in 2013, coinciding with upward revisions to worst-case SLR projections and accompanying uncertainty around these projections. The effect is larger for long-maturity bonds and not solely driven by near-term flood risk. We use a structural model of credit risk to quantify the implied economic impact and distinguish between the effects of underlying asset values and of uncertainty. The SLR exposure premium exhibits a trend different from house prices and is unaffected by house price controls. Together, our results highlight the importance of climate uncertainty in driving municipal bond prices.